US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-38 House.
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher speaks as people gather at Houston City Hall to protest against policies introduced by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as part of a national action organized by Hands Off!
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJon Bonck | 96.4% | 96.9% | 96.2% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DMelissa McDonough | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Jon Bonck, a Republican mortgage broker, is the Republican nominee for Texas's 38th congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Melissa McDonough, a realtor and the district's 2024 Democratic nominee.
Melissa McDonough, a Democratic realtor and her party's 2024 nominee for Texas's 38th congressional district, is again the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2026, facing Republican Jon Bonck, a mortgage broker.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 38th District margin of victory
| Bonck, 2+ pts | 89.3% | |
| Bonck, 5+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Bonck, 8+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Bonck, 11+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Bonck, 14+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Bonck, 17+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Bonck, 20+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Bonck, 23+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Bonck, 26+ pts | 4.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Jon Bonck: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 97.9% · $209 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jon Bonck: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.4% · $931 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jon Bonck
If the House member sworn in for TX-38 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
