nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

VA-11 House 2026

96.9% DJames Walkinshaw leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.8%
Kalshi
97.2%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for VA-11 House.

  1. Virginia Democrats Eye GOP-Held Seats in House of Delegates

    Article focuses on Virginia Democrats' efforts to expand their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates.

    pro.stateaffairs.comPurves
  2. Krishnamoorthi Joins Warren, Garcia, Bipartisan Lawmakers in Introducing Bill to Hold Bankers Who Financed Jeffrey Epstein’s Sex Trafficking Operation Accountable

    Emily Randall (D-WA-07) is listed as a co-sponsor of the Epstein Wall Street Records Act, a bipartisan bill led by Rep. Krishnamoorthi to hold bankers who financed Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operation accountable.

    krishnamoorthi.house.govOfficialWalkinshawRandall
  3. Ansari Introduces Bipartisan IRAN Act to Expand Internet Freedom for the Iranian People

    Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.

    ansari.house.govOfficialGottheimerWalkinshawAuchinclossMinTenneyCarson
  4. High costs and the Iran war are on 5th Congressional District candidates’ minds

    Summary tailored to your query: The provided material concerns Virginia’s 5th Congressional District (McGuire, Perriello, Harvey) and does not mention Arthur Purves or VA-11 House.

    Virginia Public MediaMcGuireConroyPurves
  5. Ranking Members Warren and Garcia Lead Bipartisan Lawmakers in Introducing Bill to Hold Bankers Who Financed Epstein Accountable

    Emily Randall is listed as a co-sponsor of the Epstein Wall Street Records Act in the provided materials.

    banking.senate.govOfficialWalkinshawRandall
More coverage 4
  1. FBI, postal service investigate suspicious letters sent to election offices with DSA return address

    The FOX 5 DC article reports that the FBI and postal service are investigating suspicious letters sent to election offices with a DSA return address. Rep.

    WTTGWalkinshaw
  2. Ross Wilkers - Defense One

    The page features Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA-11) outlining his priorities for oversight of federal contracting and IT, including scrutiny of Trump-era contracting practices, reviving federal IT oversight, and pursuing…

    Defense OneWalkinshaw
  3. 6th District in Congress | House

    The page appears to be a Frederick News-Post profile or piece about the 6th Congressional District, featuring Robin Ficker as a candidate.

    Frederick News-PostMintonWirthPurves
  4. The Political Beat Candidate Guide: U.S. House of Representatives District 11

    The page is a candidate guide for U.S. House District 11 (WSOC TV’s Political Beat), dated Oct 15, 2026.

    WSOCPurves

James Walkinshaw, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJames Walkinshaw 96.9% 96.8% 97.2% 0.5 pts –
RArthur Purves 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Arthur Purves

Republican

Arthur Purves, a Republican who is president of the Fairfax County taxpayers alliance and a perennial candidate, faces Democratic incumbent James Walkinshaw and Green Dianne Blais for Virginia's 11th congressional district in 2026.

James Walkinshaw

James Walkinshaw

Democratic U.S. Representative for Virginia's 11th congressional district (since 2025)

James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who has represented Virginia's 11th congressional district since winning a September 2025 special election, faces Republican Arthur Purves, president of the Fairfax County taxpayers alliance, in 2026.

Born 1982 · Arlington County, Virginia

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi18.0K contracts

Virginia's 11th District margin of victory

Walkinshaw, 11+ pts
95.5%
implied
Walkinshaw, 14+ pts
95.5%
implied
Walkinshaw, 17+ pts
95.4%
implied
Walkinshaw, 20+ pts
97.4%
Walkinshaw, 23+ pts
96.4%
Walkinshaw, 26+ pts
95.0%
Walkinshaw, 29+ pts
91.1%
Walkinshaw, 32+ pts
88.3%
Walkinshaw, 35+ pts
82.5%
Walkinshaw, 38+ pts
78.5%
Walkinshaw, 41+ pts
65.5%
Walkinshaw, 44+ pts
49.5%
Walkinshaw, 47+ pts
33.5%
Walkinshaw, 50+ pts
19.5%
Walkinshaw, 53+ pts
9.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$29.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

James Walkinshaw: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.4% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

James Walkinshaw: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 98.2% · $637 within 5 pts

Contract shown: James Walkinshaw

If the House member sworn in for VA-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Virginia

  1. Virginia SenateD98%
  2. VA-01 HouseD56%
  3. VA-02 HouseD87%
  4. VA-03 HouseD97%
  5. VA-04 HouseD98%
  6. VA-05 HouseR72%
  7. VA-06 HouseR93%
  8. VA-07 HouseD97%