nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026 · Special election

Florida Senate (special) 2026

91.4% RAshley Moody leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
90.5%
Kalshi
91.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.7
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Florida Senate (special).

  1. Florida Senate Race 2026 Polls & Predictions

    This specific market resolves once Florida's special Senate election is officially decided, settling Marco Rubio's unexpired term through January 2029.

    actionnetwork.comMoodyNixon
  2. Angie Nixon says opponent Ashley Moody should be locked up, punished in jail

    "The fact remains that Ashley Moody is a lying, cheating, thieving, scamming person who basically took $10 million from sick kids for the Medicaid program.

    Fox NewsMoody
  3. DSA Florida Senate hopeful Angie Nixon wants Ashley Moody 'locked up'

    The $10 million was given to the Hope Florida Foundation, founded by state first lady Casey DeSantis, and routed to two political action committees set up to oppose a 2024 ballot measure legalizing cannabis for use by…

    New York PostMoody
  4. ‘I Want Her Locked Up!’ Democratic Senate Candidate Demands Her GOP Rival Be Jailed in Wild CNN Hit

    Democratic Florida Senate candidate Angie Nixon doubled and then tripled down on her call for her opponent, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL), to be “locked up” in a

    MediaiteMoodyNixon
  5. Sunburn: The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics: 10.15.26
    Florida PoliticsNixon
More coverage 10
  1. Angie Nixon brought her U.S. Senate campaign to UCF ...
    www.facebook.comSocial postNixon
  2. After Ashley Moody Epstein Probe, Donors Linked to Him Poured Money Into her Senate Campaign

    During her tenure as Florida Attorney General, Sen. Ashley Moody led an investigation into the work-release program that allowed Jeffrey Epstein to engage in sexual encounters while imprisoned for soliciting underage…

    Drop Site NewsMoody
  3. Latest News from CNN Politics

    Florida Democratic Senate candidate, State Representative Angie Nixon and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy join Kasie Hunt to discuss why the Democratic party can be competitive in Florida.

    cnn.comNixon
  4. Democrats Attack Republican Florida Senator for Refusing Debates

    “Unelected Ashley Moody remains a question mark for Florida voters, and that’s exactly how she likes it,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried stated.

    westorlandonews.comMoody
  5. Senator Moody Welcomed Florida Veterans on Honor Flight

    Honor Flights are special trips planned for veterans of America’s wars to travel to Washington, D.C.

    westorlandonews.comMoody
  6. ‘Everybody is just tired’: Rep. Angie Nixon on Orlando’s Morning News with Scott Anez

    Rep. Angie Nixon spoke with WDBO’s Scott Anez Wednesday morning about the upcoming midterm election, recent poll results and some hot-button issues for Floridians.

    wdbo.comMoody
  7. Ashley Moody Puts 'Tough on Crime' Resume Against Angie Nixon's 'Radical' Approach · The Floridian

    U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) is letting voters know she's sent criminals to jail while her socialist opponent idealizes them as part of the agenda to get rid of cops in a campaign ad released this week.

    floridianpress.comMoody
  8. Angie Nixon, the Democratic candidate in Florida's U.S. ...
    InstagramSocial postNixon
  9. Just a little reminder… 👀 Make sure y'all vote for me on ...

    Florida Senate candidate Angie Nixon discusses her political platform and her history of activism. She recounts her protest against Florida's redistricting maps

    www.facebook.comSocial postNixon
  10. Angie Nixon for Florida

    Angie Nixon, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, discusses Florida's role as a starting point for controversial legislation that often becomes federalized.

    m.facebook.comSocial postNixon

Ashley Moody, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAshley Moody 91.4% 90.5% 91.5% 1.0 pts –
DAngie Nixon 8.7% 9.5% 8.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/florida/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-florida">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Angie Nixon

Angie Nixon

Democratic Member of the Florida House of Representatives (since 2020)

Angie Nixon, a Democrat in the Florida House of Representatives since 2020, is her party's nominee in Florida's 2026 special election for the United States Senate.

Born 1984
Ashley Moody

Ashley Moody

Republican United States Senator from Florida (since 2025)

Ashley Moody, a Republican appointed to the U.S. Senate from Florida in 2025 after serving as state attorney general, is her party's nominee in the 2026 special election.

Born 1975 · Plant City, Florida

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi124.4K contracts

Florida Senate margin of victory

Moody, 2+ pts
90.0%
Moody, 4+ pts
84.5%
Moody, 6+ pts
65.5%
Moody, 8+ pts
51.5%
Moody, 10+ pts
40.5%
Moody, 12+ pts
23.5%
Moody, 14+ pts
16.5%
Moody, 16+ pts
8.5%
Moody, 18+ pts
5.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi3.5K contracts

Florida Senate margin of victory

Yes
4.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$23.5K traded

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory

Moody 21%+
2.8%
Moody 18-21%
6.0%
Moody 15-18%
4.9%
Moody 12-15%
3.9%
Moody 9-12%
12.5%
Moody 6-9%
23.5%
Moody 3-6%
17.5%
Moody 0-3%
10.5%
Nixon 0-3%
7.8%
Nixon 3%+
3.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$228.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ashley Moody: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 91.0% · $18.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.4M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ashley Moody: Counted · bid 91.3% / ask 91.7% · $128.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ashley Moody

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Florida for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Florida

  1. Florida GovernorR79%
  2. FL-01 HouseR96%
  3. FL-02 HouseR92%
  4. FL-03 HouseR95%
  5. FL-04 HouseR86%
  6. FL-05 HouseR93%
  7. FL-06 HouseR97%
  8. FL-07 HouseR65%