US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-11 House.
The NPR piece discusses U.S. Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican representing a Miami-area, Latino-majority district (FL-27, in the Miami area; note: current district numbers may shift with redistricting).
The article reports on a Florida House district redistricting dispute involving Miami-Dade, with House District 115 (represented by Rep. Omar Blanco) facing a lawsuit alleging gerrymandering.
The article covers a high-stakes Florida House race in the 27th District (Miami area), where Democrats aim to flip a seat won by Trump’s alignment in 2024.
Joe Strada, founder and part owner of Strada Services, based in Sanford, Florida, said remediation efforts are underway, although the Orlando Sentinel reported that a lawyer for the firm had earlier indicated that homes…
The article discusses housing affordability becoming a primary issue in Florida’s 20th Congressional District race.
The page covers Ryan Elijah and Dalton (for Florida’s 7th District) and their run for the U.S. House seat after Cory Mills’ primary loss.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJoe Strada | 87.9% | 90.5% | 87.5% | 3.0 pts | – | |
| DJames Pericola | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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James Pericola, a Democrat and attorney, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Florida's 11th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican businessman Joe Strada in the November 3 general election.
Joe Strada, a Republican businessman, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Florida's 11th congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat James Pericola, an attorney, in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 11th District margin of victory
| Strada, 1+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Strada, 4+ pts | 69.0% | |
| Strada, 7+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Strada, 10+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Strada, 13+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Strada, 16+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Strada, 19+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Strada, 22+ pts | 4.4% | |
| Strada, 25+ pts | 6.2% implied |
FL-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 6.5% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 2.9% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 3.9% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 9.6% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 19.5% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 22.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 8.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 6.5% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 2.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Joe Strada: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 91.0% · $5.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Joe Strada: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $31.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Joe Strada
If the House member sworn in for FL-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
