House · 3 November 2026

FL-28 House 2026

93.7% RCarlos Giménez leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 92.3%
Spread: 2.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-28 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Candidaturas Marina Baixa Congreso y Senado del PSOE Alicante

The page lists substitute candidates (Suplentes) for the Marina Baixa representatives for the PSOE in the Alicante Congress and Senate.

radiosirena.esYesterday

Giménez

Wednesday, Oct 14
Jim Jordan prepara discretamente el terreno para postularse como líder del Partido Republicano, según fuentes | En Espanol
Contexto del artículo: La nota comenta que Jim Jordan estaría preparando discretamente su ruta para postularse como líder del Partido Republicano. Las fuentes citadas incluyen el representante Carlos Giménez.

local3news.comYesterdayGiménezAlso in cnnespanol.cnn.com
Diputados: Honor Colorado pasaría de bloque mayoritario a minoritario, pero Peña apeligra su mayoría - Política - ABC Color
The article from ABC Color discusses shifts within Paraguayan political blocs, noting that the Honor Colorado faction could move from a majority to minority status, which would jeopardize its majority.

abc.com.pyYesterdayGiménez
Los republicanos exigen que se le retiren los privilegios portuarios en EE. UU. al gigante naviero propiedad del PCCh
Florida Rep. Carlos Giménez (FL-28) is leading a Republican push in Congress to revoke the port privileges of COSCO, the Chinese state-owned shipping giant. Alongside Rep. John Moolenaar (CHN- oversight chair) and Rep.

noticias.foxnews.comYesterdayGiménez

Carlos Giménez, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RCarlos Giménez	93.7%		94.5%	92.3%	2.1 pts	–
DPhil Ehr	6.0%		5.5%	7.4%	1.9 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-28/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-28">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Carlos Giménez

Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 28th congressional district (since 2023)

Carlos Giménez, a Republican and former mayor of Miami-Dade County who has represented Florida's 28th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Phil Ehr, a former Navy commander.

Born 1954 · Havana, Cuba

Full candidate profile →

Phil Ehr

Democratic

Phil Ehr, a Democrat, nonprofit executive and former Navy commander who was his party's 2024 nominee for the seat, faces Republican U.S. Representative Carlos Giménez in Florida's 28th congressional district in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.1K contracts

Florida's 28th District margin of victory

Giménez, 2+ pts		87.0%
Giménez, 5+ pts		80.5%
Giménez, 8+ pts		73.5%
Giménez, 11+ pts		60.5%
Giménez, 14+ pts		47.5%
Giménez, 17+ pts		39.5%
Giménez, 20+ pts		26.0%
Giménez, 23+ pts		20.0%
Giménez, 26+ pts		12.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.2K traded

FL-28 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		5.5%
Republican 0-5%		2.7%
Republican 5-10%		17.5%
Republican 10-15%		21.5%
Republican 15-20%		31.5%
Republican 20-25%		17.5%
Republican 25-30%		9.7%
Republican 30%+		1.6%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$65.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Carlos Giménez: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $6.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi9.8K contracts traded