House · 3 November 2026

NJ-03 House 2026

97.5% DHerb Conaway leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.5%
Kalshi: 97.4%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Live News

Recent coverage for NJ-03 House.

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ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

Herb Conaway, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DHerb Conaway	97.5%		97.5%	97.4%	0.1 pts	–
RMichael McGuire	0.6%		0.5%	0.7%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nj-03/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nj-03">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Herb Conaway

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)

Herb Conaway, a Democrat, physician and former state assemblyman who has represented New Jersey's 3rd congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Michael McGuire, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran.

Born 1963 · Trenton, New Jersey

Full candidate profile →

Michael McGuire

Republican

Michael McGuire, a Republican and U.S. Marine Corps veteran, is his party's nominee for New Jersey's 3rd congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi491 contracts

New Jersey's 3rd District margin of victory

Conaway, 6+ pts		94.7% implied
Conaway, 9+ pts		93.3% implied
Conaway, 12+ pts		95.0%
Conaway, 15+ pts		89.8%
Conaway, 18+ pts		80.5%
Conaway, 21+ pts		67.5%
Conaway, 24+ pts		52.5%
Conaway, 27+ pts		37.5%
Conaway, 30+ pts		22.0%
Conaway, 33+ pts		12.7%
Conaway, 36+ pts		5.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.4K traded

NJ-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		3.3%
Democrat 0-5%		0.5%
Democrat 5-10%		4.7%
Democrat 10-15%		10.0%
Democrat 15-20%		11.6%
Democrat 20-25%		–
Democrat 25-30%		35.4%
Democrat 30-35%		17.4%
Democrat 35%+		4.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$40.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Herb Conaway: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 97.9% · $563 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.8K contracts traded