nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NJ-10 House 2026

98.2% DLaMonica McIver leads TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlySafe D
Polymarket
–
Kalshi
98.2%
Spread
0.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NJ-10 House.

  1. Siliconeer | Decoding Autism – Teaching An App To Say “Maybe”

    Shashank Madala at Rep. LaMonica McIver’s 2025 Congressional App Challenge reception for New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District, where Kora was named the district’s first-place app.

    siliconeer.comMcIver
  2. New Jerseyans to start midterm elections next week. What to know

    District 7 (Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren)- Incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. (R); Rebecca Bennett (D); Seamus O'Toole (Stop Israel's Genocide Party).

    The Asbury Park PressMcIverHathawayPallone
  3. Republican Hillary Herzig Challenges Democrat Frank Pallone For U.S. Congress

    OCEANPORT, NJ: Hillary Herzig is the Republican running against Democrat Frank Pallone this year for U.S. Congress.

    PatchHerzigPalloneMeleSmithBuccoDiLorenzo
  4. POLITICO Pro | Article

    The Politico Pro piece analyzes Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s vulnerabilities in New Jersey’s 2nd District (NJ-12) as Democrats contemplate making the district competitive.

    subscriber.politicopro.comMeleBucco
  5. Particle: Kean Faces First‑Time Challenger in Tight Race for New Jersey’s 7th District

    The article discusses the New Jersey 7th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Rebecca Bennett for the November 3 election.

    Particle.NewsBuccoDiLorenzo
More coverage 1
  1. Bucco Bill to Reduce Delays in Domestic Violence, Stalking Cases Passes Committee • New Jersey Legislative SRO, NJ

    This NJ Senate article discusses a bill sponsored by Senator Anthony M. Bucco (R-Morris, Passaic) aimed at expediting search warrants in domestic violence, stalking, and related cases.

    senatenj.comBucco

LaMonica McIver, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLaMonica McIver 98.2%
Kalshi only
 – 98.2% – –
RCarmen Bucco 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Carmen Bucco

Republican

Carmen Bucco, a Republican perennial candidate who was the party's 2024 nominee for the seat, is again its nominee for New Jersey's 10th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent LaMonica McIver.

LaMonica McIver

LaMonica McIver

Democratic U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 10th congressional district (since 2024)

LaMonica McIver, a Democrat who has represented New Jersey's 10th congressional district since 2024 after serving as Newark council president, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Carmen Bucco.

Born 1986 · Newark, New Jersey

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.0K contracts

New Jersey's 10th District margin of victory

McIver, 45+ pts
92.8%
McIver, 48+ pts
88.1%
McIver, 51+ pts
82.0%
McIver, 54+ pts
74.5%
McIver, 57+ pts
65.5%
McIver, 60+ pts
54.5%
McIver, 63+ pts
42.5%
McIver, 66+ pts
30.5%
McIver, 69+ pts
14.0%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.6K traded

NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
1.0%
Democrat 0-35%
3.0%
Democrat 35-45%
–
Democrat 45-50%
5.3%
Democrat 50-55%
9.8%
Democrat 55-60%
16.0%
Democrat 60-65%
32.0%
Democrat 65-70%
27.2%
Democrat 70-75%
4.5%
Democrat 75%+
1.1%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$58.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

LaMonica McIver: Not counted: bids only or asks only · bid 97.0% / ask –

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

LaMonica McIver: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.8% · $737 within 5 pts

Contract shown: LaMonica McIver

If the House member sworn in for NJ-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New Jersey

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  2. NJ-01 HouseD96%
  3. NJ-02 HouseR83%
  4. NJ-03 HouseD97%
  5. NJ-04 HouseR97%
  6. NJ-05 HouseD96%
  7. NJ-06 HouseD97%
  8. NJ-07 HouseD91%