US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-11 House.
The article covers House Speaker Mike Johnson’s stop in McAllen, Texas, highlighting the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) as a pivotal battleground for control of the House.
Fort Worth's U.S. House seat is up for grabs again this fall, with first-term Republican Rep.
H.R.10695: United States Submarine Cable Security Policy Act of 2026
PflugerSeveral members of the Republican Study Committee (RSC) have already done so, signing the Vice President's Pledge to Protect Americans from Fraud.
Here’s a concise, directly useful summary based on the provided page and your query.
The page is KHOU’s 2026 Texas Midterm Election Coverage, detailing live election results coverage across Texas.
The article reports that Congressman August Pfluger (TX-11), chair of the USAF Academy Board of Visitors, submitted the Board’s semiannual report of forward-looking recommendations for the United States Air Force…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAugust Pfluger | 96.6% | 96.5% | 96.6% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DClaire Reynolds | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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August Pfluger, a Republican Air Force officer who has represented Texas's 11th congressional district since 2021, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Claire Reynolds, an attorney.
Claire Reynolds, a Democrat and attorney, is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 11th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent August Pfluger.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 11th District margin of victory
| Pfluger, 15+ pts | 87.3% | |
| Pfluger, 18+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Pfluger, 21+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Pfluger, 24+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Pfluger, 27+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Pfluger, 30+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Pfluger, 33+ pts | 10.9% | |
| Pfluger, 36+ pts | 5.0% | |
| Pfluger, 39+ pts | 6.3% implied |
TX-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.4% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 5-15% | 2.8% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 29.9% | |
| Republican 25-30% | – | |
| Republican 30-35% | 14.6% | |
| Republican 35-40% | – | |
| Republican 40-45% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 1.0% |
Prices which party wins.
August Pfluger: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 97.8% · $887 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
August Pfluger: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 97.0% · $1.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: August Pfluger
If the House member sworn in for TX-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
