House · 3 November 2026

TX-22 House 2026

94.6% RTrever Nehls leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 94.7%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Trever Nehls, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTrever Nehls	94.6%		94.5%	94.7%	0.2 pts	–
DMarquette Greene-Scott	4.5%		4.5%	4.4%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Marquette Greene-Scott

Democratic Member of the Iowa Colony City Council

Marquette Greene-Scott, a Democratic Iowa Colony city councilor and the party's 2024 nominee in the district, faces Republican Trever Nehls for Texas's open 22nd congressional district seat in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Trever Nehls

Republican

Trever Nehls, a Republican former Fort Bend County constable and brother of Representative Troy Nehls, is the party's nominee for the open 22nd district seat in 2026 against Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.0K contracts

Texas's 22nd District margin of victory

Nehls, 3+ pts		92.0%
Nehls, 6+ pts		84.5%
Nehls, 9+ pts		74.5%
Nehls, 12+ pts		61.5%
Nehls, 15+ pts		47.5%
Nehls, 18+ pts		33.5%
Nehls, 21+ pts		21.5%
Nehls, 24+ pts		11.6%
Nehls, 27+ pts		5.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.2K traded

TX-22 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		3.0%
Republican 0-5%		5.0%
Republican 5-10%		21.5%
Republican 10-15%		29.5%
Republican 15-20%		34.5%
Republican 20-25%		11.9%
Republican 25-30%		3.3%
Republican 30-35%		4.4%
Republican 35%+		1.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$41.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Trever Nehls: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $1.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.9K contracts traded