House · 3 November 2026

TX-24 House 2026

92.0% RBeth Van Duyne leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 91.5%
Kalshi: 93.1%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TX-24 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

What Richardson residents need to know for early voting | Richardson

All 38 U.S. House seats are up for election, including the races for the District 24 and District 32 seats, which both cover parts of Richardson.

Community Impact21h agoBurge Barrios Early

Yesterday
House bill seeks $140,000 H-1B wage floor
The bill, H.R. 10799, was introduced on October 13 by Rep. Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin and referred to the House Judiciary Committee. It has no cosponsors yet.

lokmattimes.comYesterdayGrothman DuyneAlso in newspointapp.com, asiapost.in, thepresidency.net
Wednesday, Oct 14
Ursuline Educators Honored as Texas-24 Hometown Heroes | News
Beth Van Duyne recognizes Texas-24 Hometown Heroes, honoring local contributors. Ursuline Academy of Dallas highlights that several community members (Misses Nipp, Chinuntdet, and Butler) were named Hometown Heroes by…

ursulinedallas.orgYesterdayDuyne

Beth Van Duyne, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBeth Van Duyne	92.0%		91.5%	93.1%	1.6 pts	–
DKevin Burge	8.3%		8.5%	7.2%	1.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tx-24/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tx-24">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Beth Van Duyne

Republican U.S. Representative for Texas's 24th congressional district (since 2021)

Beth Van Duyne, a Republican who has represented Texas's 24th congressional district since 2021 and was mayor of Irving from 2011 to 2017, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Kevin Burge.

Born 1970 · Albany, New York

Full candidate profile →

Kevin Burge

Democratic

Kevin Burge, a Democratic IT security specialist, is his party's nominee for Texas's 24th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Beth Van Duyne in the redrawn district.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.2K contracts

Texas's 24th District margin of victory

Duyne, 1+ pts		94.3%
Duyne, 3+ pts		87.2%
Duyne, 6+ pts		76.5%
Duyne, 9+ pts		65.5%
Duyne, 12+ pts		–
Duyne, 15+ pts		36.0%
Duyne, 18+ pts		24.5%
Duyne, 21+ pts		10.4%
Duyne, 24+ pts		6.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.2K traded

TX-24 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+		11.0%
Republican 18-21%		4.3%
Republican 15-18%		5.2%
Republican 12-15%		18.0%
Republican 9-12%		18.5%
Republican 6-9%		18.1%
Republican 3-6%		12.0%
Republican 0-3%		7.0%
Democrat 0-3%		7.3%
Democrat 3%+		2.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$70.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Beth Van Duyne: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 92.0% · $10.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi30.3K contracts traded