US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TX-30 House.
The article covers three candidates running for Texas House District 57 in Denton County for the November 3 ballot: Republican incumbent Richard Hayes, Democrat Ray Stith, and Libertarian Darren Hamilton.
U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher speaks as people gather at Houston City Hall to protest against policies introduced by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as part of a national action organized by Hands Off!
Here’s a concise, directly useful summary based on the provided page and your query.
Frederick Haynes III is a Democratic candidate in Texas House District 30 (TX-30), running in a Democratic-leaning seat.
IIISource focus: KUT Radio covers Texas House District 52 race (Round Rock area) between Democrat Chris Jimenez and Republican incumbent Caroline Harris Davila.
The FOX 26 Houston page lists early voting and polling locations for the November 3 midterm election across multiple Texas counties in the Houston/Southeast Texas area.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFrederick Haynes III | 97.3% | 96.9% | 98.3% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| REverett Jackson | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Everett Jackson, a Republican business owner, is the party's nominee for Texas's open 30th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Frederick Haynes III, a pastor and former Rainbow/PUSH chief executive.
Frederick Haynes III, a Democrat who has been senior pastor of Friendship-West Baptist Church in Dallas since 1983, is his party's nominee for Texas's open 30th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Everett Jackson.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas's 30th District margin of victory
| Haynes, 40+ pts | 91.3% | |
| Haynes, 43+ pts | 88.3% | |
| Haynes, 46+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Haynes, 49+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Haynes, 52+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Haynes, 55+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Haynes, 58+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Haynes, 61+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Haynes, 64+ pts | 22.0% | |
| Haynes, 67+ pts | 12.6% |
TX-30 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 2.8% | |
| Democrat 0-30% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 30-40% | 1.9% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 19.8% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 23.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 17.6% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 4.7% | |
| Democrat 70%+ | 8.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Frederick Haynes III: Counted · bid 95.4% / ask 98.4% · $1.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Frederick Haynes III: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 99.5% · $681 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Frederick Haynes III
If the House member sworn in for TX-30 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
