US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-19 House.
Southwest Florida is a solidly Republican region. Local races include the open 19th District, where Republican Jim Schwartzel is viewed as the frontrunner against Democrat Victor Arias, and the 22nd District contest…
Two open congressional seats are also in play near Fort Myers. In Florida’s 19th Congressional District, RepublicanJim Schwartzelis considered the frontrunner against DemocratVictor Ariasfor the seat currently held by…
BilirakisNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJim Schwartzel | 94.7% | 94.5% | 95.2% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DVictor Arias | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.3 pts | – |
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Jim Schwartzel, president of Sun Broadcasting and owner of WFSX-FM, is the Republican nominee for the open 19th congressional district seat in Florida in 2026 against Democrat Victor Arias.
Victor Arias is the Democratic nominee for the open 19th congressional district seat in Florida in 2026, facing Republican Jim Schwartzel, president of Sun Broadcasting, in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 19th District margin of victory
| Schwartzel, 8+ pts | 92.3% | |
| Schwartzel, 11+ pts | 80.0% implied | |
| Schwartzel, 14+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Schwartzel, 17+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Schwartzel, 20+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Schwartzel, 23+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Schwartzel, 26+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Schwartzel, 29+ pts | 9.8% | |
| Schwartzel, 32+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Schwartzel, 35+ pts | 6.1% implied |
FL-19 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 1.7% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 22.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 34.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 4.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Jim Schwartzel: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $1.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jim Schwartzel: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 95.9% · $778 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jim Schwartzel
If the House member sworn in for FL-19 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
