This tracker is an archive of the 2026 US midterms. Every figure is the market price at 5pm Eastern on 3 November 2026, before the first polls closed, and each race shows its result as Polymarket and Kalshi settled it.
Election night board
Chamber control, the seat charts, every Senate race and every governor race, as the markets priced them at 5pm Eastern on 3 November 2026, before the first polls closed. Races are grouped by the time the last polls in their state closed; each race page shows its result.
Senate control
TruthIndex™House control
TruthIndex™Senate seats
Senate controlHow to read this chart
Each dot is one Senate seat. Dots on the left are races Democrats are favoured to win, and dots on the right are races Republicans are favoured to win. A strong colour means the market is confident about the winner; a pale colour means a closer race. Yellow dots in the middle are toss-ups, where no side has a 60% chance or more.
The faded dots at the two ends are seats that are not on the ballot in 2026. They still count toward each party's total. The dashed line marks control. Democrats need 51 seats. Republicans need 50, because the Vice President breaks a 50–50 tie. Select a dot to open that race.
More in Methodology- Democrats, not upD, not up 34
- Safe DemocratSafe D 13
- Likely DemocratLikely D 2
- Lean DemocratLean D 4
- Toss-up 1
- Lean RepublicanLean R 2
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 3
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 10
- Republicans, not upR, not up 31
House seats
House controlHow to read this chart
Each dot is one House seat. Dots on the left are races Democrats are favoured to win, and dots on the right are races Republicans are favoured to win. A strong colour means the market is confident about the winner; a pale colour means a closer race. Yellow dots in the middle are toss-ups, where no side has a 60% chance or more.
The dashed line marks 218 seats, the number a party needs for a majority. Select a dot to open that race.
More in Methodology- Safe DemocratSafe D 212
- Likely DemocratLikely D 15
- Lean DemocratLean D 8
- Toss-up 13
- Other leader 1
- Lean RepublicanLean R 15
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 30
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 141
Biggest moves, last hour
Moves over the last hour appear once an hour of prices has been recorded.
When polls close
- 7:00 PMGeorgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
- 7:30 PMNorth Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
- 8:00 PMAlabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee
- 8:30 PMArkansas
- 9:00 PMArizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
- 10:00 PMMontana, Nevada
- 11:00 PMCalifornia, Idaho, Oregon
- 12:00 AM (4 Nov)Hawaii
- 1:00 AM (4 Nov)Alaska
Eastern Time, when the last polls in each state close.
7:00 PM ET
Georgia · Kentucky · South Carolina · Vermont · Virginia| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Senate Senate |
DJon Ossoff | 97.1% | 97.3% | 96.9% | 0.5 pts | – | – | |
| Georgia Governor Governor |
DKeisha Lance Bottoms | 72.0% | 72.5% | 71.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Kentucky Senate Senate |
RAndy Barr | 96.8% | 96.9% | 96.8% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| South Carolina Senate Senate |
RDarline Graham Nordone | 69.5% | 69.5% | 69.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| South Carolina Governor Governor |
RAlan Wilson | 94.2% | 95.5% | 92.9% | 2.8 pts | – | – | |
| Vermont Governor Governor |
RPhil Scott | 66.5% | 66.5% | 66.5% | 1.1 pts | – | – | |
| Virginia Senate Senate |
DMark Warner | 99.0% | 99.0% | 99.0% | 0.0 pts | – | – |
Polls in part of Kentucky close at 6:00 PM ET.
7:30 PM ET
North Carolina · Ohio · West Virginia| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Senate Senate |
DRoy Cooper | 97.8% | 98.2% | 97.4% | 0.9 pts | – | – | |
| Ohio Senate (special) Senate |
DSherrod Brown | 72.5% | 72.5% | 72.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Ohio Governor Governor |
DAmy Acton | 82.0% | 83.5% | 80.5% | 3.0 pts | – | – | |
| West Virginia Senate Senate |
RShelley Moore Capito | 98.6% | 98.5% | 98.9% | 0.4 pts | – | – |
8:00 PM ET
Alabama · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Illinois · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Mississippi · New Hampshire · New Jersey · Oklahoma · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · Tennessee| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Senate Senate |
RBarry Moore | 97.7% | 97.8% | 97.6% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| Alabama Governor Governor |
RTommy Tuberville | 91.4% | 91.3% | 91.6% | 0.6 pts | – | – | |
| Connecticut Governor Governor |
DNed Lamont | 97.7% | 97.6% | 97.8% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| Delaware Senate Senate |
DChris Coons | 98.9% | 98.9% | 99.0% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| Florida Senate (special) Senate |
RAshley Moody | 87.5% | 87.5% | 87.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Florida Governor Governor |
RByron Donalds | 65.0% | 63.5% | 66.5% | 3.0 pts | – | – | |
| Illinois Senate Senate |
DJuliana Stratton | 98.8% | 98.8% | 98.7% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| Illinois Governor Governor |
DJB Pritzker | 98.2% | 98.3% | 98.2% | 0.5 pts | – | – | |
| Maine Senate Senate |
DTroy Jackson | 70.0% | 70.5% | 69.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Maine Governor Governor |
DHannah Pingree | 96.9% | 96.4% | 97.4% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Maryland Governor Governor |
DWes Moore | 98.8% | 99.1% | 98.6% | 0.7 pts | – | – | |
| Massachusetts Senate Senate |
DEd Markey | 99.0% | 99.3% | 98.8% | 0.8 pts | – | – | |
| Massachusetts Governor Governor |
DMaura Healey | 97.5% | 97.4% | 97.6% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Mississippi Senate Senate |
RCindy Hyde-Smith | 86.5% | 86.5% | 86.5% | 0.5 pts | – | – | |
| New Hampshire Senate Senate |
DChris Pappas | 94.6% | 95.5% | 93.8% | 2.2 pts | – | – | |
| New Hampshire Governor Governor |
RKelly Ayotte | 85.4% | 85.3% | 85.5% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| New Jersey Senate Senate |
DCory Booker | 98.7% | 98.6% | 98.8% | 0.4 pts | – | – | |
| Oklahoma Senate Senate |
RKevin Hern | 98.7% | 98.9% | 98.6% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Oklahoma Governor Governor |
RMike Mazzei | 90.4% | 90.5% | 90.3% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| Pennsylvania Governor Governor |
DJosh Shapiro | 98.0% | 98.2% | 97.9% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Rhode Island Senate Senate |
DJack Reed | 99.2% | 99.0% | 99.4% | 0.4 pts | – | – | |
| Rhode Island Governor Governor |
DHelena Foulkes | 97.7% | 97.8% | 97.6% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| Tennessee Senate Senate |
RBill Hagerty | 98.1% | 98.3% | 98.0% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Tennessee Governor Governor |
RMarsha Blackburn | 92.9% | 93.6% | 92.2% | 1.4 pts | – | – |
Polls in part of Florida close at 7:00 PM ET. Polls in part of New Hampshire close at 7:00 PM ET.
8:30 PM ET
Arkansas| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas Senate Senate |
RTom Cotton | 96.6% | 96.3% | 96.9% | 0.6 pts | – | – | |
| Arkansas Governor Governor |
RSarah Huckabee Sanders | 97.5% | 97.5% | 97.5% | 0.1 pts | – | – |
9:00 PM ET
Arizona · Colorado · Iowa · Kansas · Louisiana · Michigan · Minnesota · Nebraska · New Mexico · New York · South Dakota · Texas · Wisconsin · Wyoming| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Governor Governor |
DKatie Hobbs | 93.3% | 93.5% | 93.2% | 0.8 pts | – | – | |
| Colorado Senate Senate |
DJohn Hickenlooper | 98.9% | 98.9% | 99.0% | 0.4 pts | – | – | |
| Colorado Governor Governor |
DPhil Weiser | 97.0% | 96.9% | 97.2% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Iowa Senate Senate |
DJosh Turek | 50.8% | 51.0% | 50.5% | 0.5 pts | – | – | |
| Iowa Governor Governor |
DRob Sand | 87.0% | 87.5% | 86.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Kansas Senate Senate |
DAdam Hamilton | 64.5% | 64.5% | 64.5% | 0.0 pts | – | – | |
| Kansas Governor Governor |
RTy Masterson | 64.0% | 63.5% | 64.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Louisiana Senate Senate |
RJulia Letlow | 84.0% | 84.5% | 83.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Michigan Senate Senate |
DAbdul El-Sayed | 75.5% | 75.5% | 75.5% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Michigan Governor Governor |
DJocelyn Benson | 94.4% | 94.7% | 94.2% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Minnesota Senate Senate |
DPeggy Flanagan | 91.0% | 91.5% | 90.6% | 1.0 pts | – | – | |
| Minnesota Governor Governor |
DAmy Klobuchar | 97.7% | 97.6% | 97.8% | 0.2 pts | – | – | |
| Nebraska Senate Senate |
RPete Ricketts | 70.5% | 69.5% | 71.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Nebraska Governor Governor |
RJim Pillen | 88.5% Polymarket only |
88.5% | – | – | – | – | |
| New Mexico Senate Senate |
DBen Ray Luján | 98.7% | 98.8% | 98.7% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| New Mexico Governor Governor |
DDeb Haaland | 95.2% | 95.3% | 95.2% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| New York Governor Governor |
DKathy Hochul | 96.7% | 96.7% | 96.8% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| South Dakota Senate Senate |
RMike Rounds | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| South Dakota Governor Governor |
RLarry Rhoden | 98.1% | 98.1% | 98.2% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| Texas Senate Senate |
DJames Talarico | 75.0% | 75.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Texas Governor Governor |
RGreg Abbott | 63.6% | 62.7% | 64.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – | |
| Wisconsin Governor Governor |
DDavid Crowley | 86.5% | 87.5% | 85.5% | 3.0 pts | – | – | |
| Wyoming Senate Senate |
RHarriet Hageman | 98.7% | 98.7% | 98.7% | 0.0 pts | – | – | |
| Wyoming Governor Governor |
REric Barlow | 98.7% | 98.8% | 98.7% | 0.1 pts | – | – |
Polls in part of Kansas close at 8:00 PM ET. Polls in part of Michigan close at 8:00 PM ET. Polls in part of South Dakota close at 8:00 PM ET. Polls in part of Texas close at 8:00 PM ET.
10:00 PM ET
Montana · Nevada| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana Senate Senate |
RKurt Alme | 92.7% | 92.5% | 92.9% | 0.4 pts | – | – | |
| Nevada Governor Governor |
DAaron Ford | 82.5% | 82.5% | 82.5% | 0.0 pts | – | – |
11:00 PM ET
California · Idaho · Oregon| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor Governor |
DXavier Becerra | 97.8% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 0.7 pts | – | – | |
| Idaho Senate Senate |
RJim Risch | 96.5% | 96.3% | 96.7% | 0.4 pts | – | – | |
| Idaho Governor Governor |
RBrad Little | 98.1% | 98.0% | 98.1% | 0.1 pts | – | – | |
| Oregon Senate Senate |
DJeff Merkley | 99.2% | 99.2% | 99.2% | 0.3 pts | – | – | |
| Oregon Governor Governor |
DTina Kotek | 84.5% | 85.5% | 83.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – |
Polls in part of Idaho close at 10:00 PM ET. Polls in part of Oregon close at 10:00 PM ET.
12:00 AM (4 Nov) ET
Hawaii| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii Governor Governor |
DJosh Green | 98.4% | 98.5% | 98.4% | 0.1 pts | – | – |
1:00 AM (4 Nov) ET
Alaska| Contest | Leader | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 1h | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate Senate |
DMary Peltola | 68.8% | 70.5% | 67.0% | 3.5 pts | – | – | |
| Alaska Governor Governor |
DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 87.4% | 87.3% | 87.5% | 2.0 pts | – | – |
Polls in part of Alaska close at 12:00 AM (4 Nov) ET.
Poll closing times: 270toWin and The Green Papers, checked 14 Oct 2026. Individual polling places can close at other times.